EcuadorNoboa and González face off in runoff with an open outcome
On April 13, Ecuadorians will return to the polls to decide who will lead the country from 2025 to 2029. The showdown is between current president Daniel Noboa, leader of Acción Democrática Nacional (ADN), and Luisa González, candidate of Revolución Ciudadana (RC) and a key figure in correísmo. The winner, who will take office on May 24, will be the one with the most valid votes.
This runoff pits two opposing visions for Ecuador’s future, in a much tougher social and political climate. Noboa stands for the continuation of a technocratic model with strong business support, while González aims to revive correísmo, focusing on a more active state and greater economic intervention.
The next government’s ability to govern will depend on how well it can build alliances in a fragmented and polarized National Assembly, which will start its term on May 14. In this context, the new administration will need to negotiate constantly to push its agenda, form temporary majorities, and manage an unstable power balance.
González holds a slim lead over Noboa in the polls
Polls show a highly competitive race heading into Ecuador’s presidential runoff, with Luisa González leading at 50.62% of voting intentions, just slightly ahead of Daniel Noboa, who stands at 49.03%. This minimal gap signals a tight contest, where factors like overseas voting, mobilization in rural areas, and abstention could tip the scales in the final stretch, especially considering the 6.8% of null votes and 2.16% of blank votes in the first round.